南半球中纬度偶极模态与亚洲—非洲夏季降水   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

明静  孙建奇  李国平  裴军林 《大气科学》2015,39(2):413-421

南半球大气环流第一模态为南极涛动, 它表现出较好的纬向对称结构。本工作利用经验正交分解方法研究发现, 在南半球的东半球, 夏季(6~9月)大气环流还存在一个重要的模态。不同于南极涛动, 该模态表现为显著的纬向偶极分布, 本文定义其为偶极模态。在海平面气压场上, 该模态的解释方差可以达到20%以上, 表现出显著的年际变化特征。进一步的研究发现, 该偶极模态与亚非夏季降水存在密切联系, 尤其与我国华南、南亚以及热带非洲东部地区的夏季降水存在显著的正相关关系。机制分析表明, 南半球这一偶极模态的异常会影响东半球越赤道气流的变化, 从而造成向上述三个地区的水汽输送的多寡, 并最终导致这三个地区夏季降水发生变化。本工作揭示的偶极模态变化独立于南极涛动, 研究结果不但可以深化对南半球环流系统变化特征及影响的认识, 而且对亚非夏季降水的变化特征和机制研究也具有重要意义。  相似文献   

Simulation of the equatorially asymmetric mode of the Hadley circulation in CMIP5 models     

Juan Feng  Jianping Li  Jianlei Zhu  Fei Li  Cheng Sun 《大气科学进展》2015,32(8):1129-1142

The tropical Hadley circulation (HC) plays an important role in influencing the climate in the tropics and extra-tropics. The realism of the climatological characteristics, spatial structure, and temporal evolution of the long-term variation of the principal mode of the annual mean HC (i.e., the equatorially asymmetric mode, EAM) was examined in model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The results showed that all the models are moderately successful in capturing the HC's climatological features, including the spatial pattern, meridional extent, and intensity, but not the spatial or temporal variation of the EAM. The possible reasons for the poor simulation of the long-term variability of the EAM were explored. None of the models can successfully capture the differences in the warming rate between the tropical Southern Hemisphere (SH) and Northern Hemisphere (NH), which is considered to be an important driver for the variation of the AM. Most of the models produce a faster warming in the NH than in the SH, which is the reverse of the observed trend. This leads to a reversed trend in the meridional gradient between the SH and NH, and contributes to the poor simulation of EAM variability. Thus, this aspect of the models should be improved to provide better simulations of the variability of the HC. This study suggests a possible reason for the poor simulation of the HC, which may be helpful for improving the skill of the CMIP5 models in the future.  相似文献   

Scientists’ framing of the ocean science–policy interface     

《Global Environmental Change》2015

Scientists’ ideas, beliefs, and discourses form the frames that shape their choices about which research to pursue, their approaches to collaboration and communicating results, and how they evaluate research outputs and outcomes. To achieve ocean sustainability, there are increasing calls for new levels of engagement and collaboration between scientists and policy-makers; scientists’ willingness to engage depends on their current and evolving frames. Here, I present results about how scientists involved in diverse fields of ocean research perceived their role as scientists working at or near the ocean science–policy interface and how this related to their perceptions regarding ocean research priorities. The survey of 2187 physical, ecological and social scientists from 94 countries showed that scientists held different perspectives about their appropriate level of engagement at the ocean science–policy interface and the relative primacy of science versus politics in formulating ocean policy. Six clusters of scientists varied in their frames; three clusters accounted for 94% of the sample. Of 67 research questions identified from 22 research prioritization and horizon scanning exercises, the top eight were shared among all three clusters, showing consistency in research priorities across scientists with different framings of their role at the science–policy interface. Five focused on the mechanisms and effects of global change on oceans, two focused on data collection and management for long-term ocean monitoring, and one focused on the links between biodiversity and ecological function at different scales. The results from this survey demonstrated that scientists’ framings of the role of ocean science at the science–policy interface can be quantified in surveys, that framing varies among scientists, and that research priorities vary according to the framings.  相似文献   

Atmospheric Circulation Changes in Response to an Observed Stratospheric Zonal Ozone Anomaly     

Dieter H. W. Peters  Andrea Schneidereit  Marianne Bügelmayer  Christoph Zülicke  Ingo Kirchner 《大气与海洋》2015,53(1):74-88

Abstract

In a sensitivity study, the influence of an observed stratospheric zonal ozone anomaly on the atmospheric circulation was investigated using the Fifth Generation European Centre Hamburg Model (ECHAM5) which is a general circulation model. The model was run from 1960 to 1999 (40 years) with a mean seasonal cycle of zonally symmetric ozone. In order to isolate the induced dynamical influence of the observed zonally asymmetric part of the three-dimensional stratospheric ozone, a second run was performed for the boreal extratropics using prescribed monthly means from the 40-year reanalysis dataset from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ERA-40). The main findings are the interdecadal westward shift of the polar vortex at about 65°N and a significant increase in the number of stratospheric sudden warmings during the 1980–99 period. Under the action of zonally asymmetric ozone a decrease in the Arctic Oscillation was identified between the mid-1980s and the mid-1990s. The lag correlation between the mean Arctic Oscillation at the surface and the daily stratospheric northern annular mode increased in mid-winter. Furthermore, we examined the influence of the stratospheric zonal ozone anomaly on Rossby wave breaking in the upper troposphere and found a significant westward shift of poleward Rossby wave breaking events over western Europe in the winter. By this we show that the stratospheric zonal ozone anomaly has a strong influence on the tropospheric circulation as a result of enhanced dynamical coupling processes.  相似文献   

Influence of positive and negative Indian Ocean Dipoles on ENSO via the Indonesian Throughflow: Results from sensitivity experiments     

ZHOU Qian  DUAN Wansuo  MU Mu  FENG Rong 《大气科学进展》2015,32(6):783-793

The role of the Indonesian Throughflow(ITF) in the influence of the Indian Ocean Dipole(IOD) on ENSO is investigated using version 2 of the Parallel Ocean Program(POP2) ocean general circulation model. We demonstrate the results through sensitivity experiments on both positive and negative IOD events from observations and coupled general circulation model simulations. By shutting down the atmospheric bridge while maintaining the tropical oceanic channel, the IOD forcing is shown to influence the ENSO event in the following year, and the role of the ITF is emphasized. During positive IOD events,negative sea surface height anomalies(SSHAs) occur in the eastern Indian Ocean, indicating the existence of upwelling.These upwelling anomalies pass through the Indonesian seas and enter the western tropical Pacific, resulting in cold anomalies there. These cold temperature anomalies further propagate to the eastern equatorial Pacific, and ultimately induce a La Nia-like mode in the following year. In contrast, during negative IOD events, positive SSHAs are established in the eastern Indian Ocean, leading to downwelling anomalies that can also propagate into the subsurface of the western Pacific Ocean and travel further eastward. These downwelling anomalies induce negative ITF transport anomalies, and an El Nio-like mode in the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean that persists into the following year. The effects of negative and positive IOD events on ENSO via the ITF are symmetric. Finally, we also estimate the contribution of IOD forcing in explaining the Pacific variability associated with ENSO via ITF.  相似文献   

雷达-雨量计联合估测区域降水量方法检验与评估   总被引：3，自引：3，他引：0  

李建通  李柏  杨洪平  刘晓阳  张玲  郭林 《气象》2015,41(2):200-211

文章在"黄河淮河流域暴雨洪水预报系统"项目试验整理的高密度地面雨量站网数据和雷达连续采集体积扫描数据基础上,首次提出了对稠密雨量站网数据科学分组的方法,并采用分组数据对雷达-雨量计联合校准的10种方法进行了多参数的客观检验和评估。研究表明:(1)雨量站分组方法科学合理,可以满足评估的要求;(2)集成法估测区域降水量好于其他非集成的8种方法;(3)雷达对不同降水强度的估测精度具有三段式分布特征;(4)50~100 km为雷达估测降水的最佳区间,150~200 km区间的估测精度最差;(5)通过时间累积,可以提高各种估测方法区域降水量估测的精度和稳定度。  相似文献   

南大洋淡水强迫对南半球环状模的影响分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

马浩  李正泉  冯涛  刘成彦 《气象与环境学报》2015,(3):81-88

南半球环状模是南半球热带外大气环流变异的主导模态,对南半球海洋—大气—海冰耦合系统有重要的影响。冰川融化激发的淡水强迫是南大洋的一种重要外强迫。在历史气候记录中,南大洋淡水通量异常曾引发数次全球性气候异常事件。基于海—气完全耦合模式FOAM,在60°S以南的海洋中施加强度为1.0 Sv的理想化淡水通量异常,分析南半球环状模的响应。结果表明：南大洋淡水通量异常可使局地西风增强,且西风的增强在垂向各个层次上均有体现。西风强度的变化导致对流层中大气斜压性增强,平流层中大气斜压性减弱。此外,淡水强迫使环状模的年际变率振幅显著减弱,而年代际变率开始增强,谱能量的变化具有垂向一致性。海温和海冰等外强迫因子的变化对环状模年代际振幅的增强具有重要意义。  相似文献   

PDCA循环法用于专业硕士产教融合培养模式研究     

史建青  董春来  冯娜娜  王信祥 《测绘通报》2021,(3):152-155

为满足新时代对卓越工程技术人才的需求,本文在分析专业硕士培养现状基础上,从人才培养方案入手,提出了PDCA理念用于产教深度融合培养模式,讨论了产教深度融合培养的目标制定、计划落实、课程体系开发、导师团队优化及实践基地的质量保障建设等方面的模式与对策,论述了专业硕士研究生培养的质量监控体系,总结出教育教学各环节的计划、执行、考查、处理的持续改进和提高的螺旋式上升过程,为专业硕士高水平培养与管理提供参考与借鉴。  相似文献   

居民出行与轨迹行为交互模式挖掘与关联技术     

代维秀  陈占龙  谢鹏 《测绘学报》2021,50(4):532-543

出租车是居民出行的重要交通工具,其轨迹数据蕴含着丰富的居民出行信息。原始出租车轨迹数据因缺少语义信息无法直观反映居民出行规律。通过轨迹数据挖掘技术处理之后的出租车轨迹数据能够反映居民活动规律和行为模式,从而为城市规划决策提供参考依据。本文重点研究了基于语义的交互模式度量,通过出租车停留点推断其语义信息;然后根据语义信息构建语义交互矩阵,用以推断和描述行为目的交互模式;最后选取北京市中心为研究区域进行方法验证。结果表明,中心城区内不同类别的停留点聚集分布规律不同,围绕高校和商圈聚集较明显;工作日各类停留点的活跃度持续时间较非工作日长;工作日和非工作日行为目的交互模式差别显著,工作日以职住和工作交互为主,非工作日以休闲和居住交互为主。本文研究可以为城市规划管理、资源调度和应急管理提供一定的决策支持。  相似文献   

疫情防控期“数字地形测量学”线上教学实践     

曹先革  杨金玲  王霞迎 《测绘工程》2021,30(3):72-76

疫情之下,在线教学为“停课不停教、停课不停学”提供了理想的教学方案。基于超星泛雅网络教学平台,以“数字地形测量学”在线课程建设为例,探索在线课程的建设方法与途径,构建“能学、辅教”的立体化教学资源,进行“超星泛雅+学习通+腾讯课堂+课程QQ群”混合教学模式的探索和实践,为在线课程建设与应用提供借鉴。  相似文献